The Ethan Allen Institute has been following the progress of S.5, the Affordable Heat Act, through the legislative process this year and up to its recent veto by Governor Scott. Since the beginning of the lawmaker’s session, we have been heavily involved in researching the costs, quantifying the impact on consumers, identifying obstacles to implementation, and testifying to the consequences of the proposed law.

The legislature had been scheduled for a vote to override or sustain the Governor’s veto on June 20-22. Democrat and Progressive leadership accelerated the vote to take place earlier today on May 9^th and the veto was overridden in the Senate by one vote. It now goes to the House for a vote to override or sustain the veto. Over the past few days, we conducted a statewide poll to gauge the public’s knowledge of and support for the Affordable Heat Act. The top line results showed that Vermonters are heavily opposed to the Affordable Heat Act and the take-aways were as follows:

Among those who know of it, Vermonters oppose the Affordable Heat Act 40% to 27%

If the Affordable Heat Act causes any increase in fuel prices, Vermonters oppose the Act by 61% to 26%.

Vermonters will vote against a state senator or state representative who supports the Affordable Heat Act by 53% to 18%, a 3 to 1 margin.

Vermonters believe Gov. Phil Scott’s veto should be upheld by 64% to 18%, more than 3-1 in favor of sustaining the veto.

Methodology: The Ethan Allen Institute conducted a statewide survey, May 1st to May 4th, 2023, among 300 registered voters in Vermont. Interviews were conducted online and by telephone. Telephone respondents included both cell phone and land line users. A 52%/48% mix of female/male respondents was enforced. At .90 confidence level the margin of error for this study is +/- 5%.

Key Finding: Vermonters are strongly against the Affordable Heat Act with overall opposition at 40% and overall support at only 27%. Those who are at either ends of opposition or support are heavily weighted against the measure. Those who strongly oppose it are 31%, while those who strongly support it are only 13%.

3. Do you support or oppose S.5, the Affordable Heat Act? And would that be STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT support or oppose?

Key Finding:  Vermonters are strongly in favor of the United States taking a leading role in reducing global carbon emissions with those in favor of action at 50% compared to those opposed at 39%.  A full 43% of those in favor of action think this should happen whether China does their share or not.

4. The world’s largest producer of carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of fossil fuels is China, followed by the United States. Knowing this, do you believe the United States should take drastic and immediate steps to reduce those emissions?

Key Finding: While Vermonters are strongly in favor of the United States taking a leading role in reducing global carbon emissions, local action on reduction is viewed less favorably. A full 48% see no benefit in Vermont’s effort to control emissions compared to only 35% who want to see the state lead the way regardless of cost.

5. Vermont accounts for one-tenth of one percent of all fossil fuel emissions in the United States. Knowing this, should Vermont take drastic and immediate steps at the state level to reduce those emissions?

Key Finding: Vermonters strongly oppose the Affordable Heat Act if it would require an increase in prices for heating fuel. In fact, 61% oppose the measure and only 26% are in favor if it produces an increase in fossil fuel prices, regardless of whether the surcharge goes to subsidize the transition to electric heat.

6. Do you support or oppose S.5, the Affordable Heat Act, if you learned it would require fuel oil and gas distributors to increase prices to their customers to subsidize heat pumps, advanced wood furnaces, and home weatherization? And would that be STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT support or oppose?

Key Finding: Vermonters do not want to pay surcharges to subsidize weatherization and the conversion to heat pumps. Vermonters oppose a 70-cent fossil fuel surcharge by 59% to 20%. Even the most conservative government estimate concerning the amount of surcharge is 3-1 against the Affordable Heat Act.

9. Secretary for the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Julie Moore, has stated the Affordable Heat Act is a $2 billion program requiring a fuel surcharge to weatherize and install heat pumps of only 70 cents per gallon extra over years 2025-2030 to comply with climate goals. Independent analysts believe the Affordable Heat Act is a $5 billion program requiring the surcharge cost to be over $4.00 per gallon extra over the same five-year period. Knowing this, would you be willing to pay more than 70 cents per gallon extra for heating fuel to achieve climate goals?

Key Finding: Given the program is billions of dollars in size and reductions must be achieved in only five years, Ethan Allen Institute has calculated the likely surcharge to be $4.00 per gallon. At this level, Vermonters rejected the program by 70% to 15%.

10. And would you be willing to pay $4.00 per gallon extra for heating fuel to achieve climate goals?

Key Finding: Sentiment runs high against the Affordable Heat Act as well as against those politicians who support it. This sentiment would also lead citizens to actively vote senators and representatives out of office if they support the Affordable Heat Act. By a measure of 53% to 18%, Vermonters will cast their vote against supporters of the Affordable Heat Act.

11. Thinking again about S.5, the Affordable Heat Act here in Vermont would you vote for or against a state representative or state senator who votes “Yes” on S.5, the Affordable Heat Act?

Key Finding: In overwhelming numbers, Vermonters desire to see Governor Phil Scott’s veto upheld by a 64% to 18% margin.

12. Governor Phil Scott has just vetoed S.5, the Affordable Heat Act. Do you believe your state senator and state representative should vote to uphold the governor’s veto, or should they vote to override the governor’s veto?

Conclusion: The Affordable Heat Act is very unpopular with Vermont voters. While action on climate is favored at the national level, Vermonters do not support action on a statewide level by 48% to 35%. This is not the narrative we have been led to believe through popular media. An urge to “do your duty” is outweighed in voter’s minds by more practical concerns like cost. And while we have been told by the Vermont Climate Council that polluters must be punished, the public disagrees. The public is against any cost surcharges to enact climate measures. This is not a small difference in opinion. No, 61% oppose any surcharges while only 26% support it.

This over 2-1 opposition shows that the methodology employed in the Act is deeply flawed. A circular credit system which makes moderate and low income people advance vast sums to convert to electric power is not wanted. Opposition to the Act only increases if the surcharge is 70 cents, at 3-1, and is overwhelmingly against, at almost 5-1, if the surcharge reaches expected levels of $4.00 per gallon.

Sentiment on the Affordable Heat Act is also leaving a lasting impression on voters. Much as we have seen groups of politicians swept out of office over specific policies, even in 2022, the politicians who support the Affordable Heat Act are being rejected by voters. By a 3-1 margin, 53% to 18%, Vermonters are saying they will vote against those who support the Affordable Heat Act. Activist politicians who support the policy should not take a victory lap as their time in office may be short lived.

Lastly, the public wants the Governor’s veto upheld by a measure of 64% to 18%, over 3-1 in favor of rejecting this legislation and starting over. Whether politicians heed the public’s opinion at this date remains to be seen. But this much is certain: the vast majority of voters do not want the Affordable Heat Act and they have seen through the disingenuous communications of supporters.

The arguments that the public should do its duty and that the Act will reduce fuel prices have not been believed. Notice how the claims that there were $6.4 billion in savings ceased after Ethan Allen testified to the flaws of the Vermont Climate Council’s savings model? By our calculations, the policy exacts a heavy price, with no savings ever. And judging by the results of this poll, the voters agree.

The left has failed in justifying the excessive monetary  and social  cost of the Affordable Heat Act. The public is not behind this sweeping remake of the state’s energy policies and its economy. And it is becoming clear that voters want to have their say over those in Montpelier who have pushed this damaging regressive policy as the state’s most important legislative priority this year.