This commentary is by Tom Evslin of Stowe, an entrepreneur, author and former Douglas administration official. It is republished from the Fractals of Change blog.
The numbers we hear in the nightly news consistently undermine the importance of vaccination even though the intent is to do the exact opposite. Problem is that neither political leaders nor most reporters know much about statistics. There’s enough misinformation current so you certainly should ask why you should believe my applied statistics 101 in this post. I’m not an epidemiologist or even a medical professional; I didn’t sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night. I have made my living with statistics-based software which controls things in real time based on statistical information and I have some related patents. Still, you should be skeptical and judge whether what I’m saying makes sense.
What does 95% effective mean?
Developing vaccines which were initially “95% effective” at warp speed was an enormous achievement even though the efficacy wanes with time and is reduced by mutations. But what does 95% effective mean? Does it mean that you have only a 5% chance of getting Covid if you’re vaccinated? NO. Definitely not! It means that people who were vaccinated in the study groups were only 5% as likely to get symptomatic Covid as those who were given a placebo. If 500 out of 10,000 unvaccinated people got Covid, the studies are saying that only 25 similarly situated vaccinated people had symptoms. That’s huge and that’s the reason the vaccines were quite properly authorized for emergency use almost as soon as these results were available.
What if everyone were vaccinated?
Then all cases would be breakthrough cases but there’d still be cases. If the chance of an unvaccinated person contracting symptomatic Covid at a particular time and place during any given month is 2% and vaccinated people statistically have 95% protection (5% breakthrough rate), then the chance of a vaccinated person getting infected is 0.1%, a small number but not nothing. If 300,000,000 of us are vaccinated and the breakthrough rate is 0.1% (numbers for illustration only), then we’d still expect 300,000 cases per month. 100% of these would be breakthrough cases. Would that mean the vaccines aren’t working? Of course not. Without them there would’ve been 6 million cases, 20 times more.
Moreover vaccinated people are saving the lives of the unvaccinated by reducing the overall spread rate. If everyone were vaccinated, cases would quickly become rare and far between and then almost non-existent in the vaccinated population – fingers crossed on mutations and booster shots.
What to watch for
As more people are vaccinated, the number of symptomatic Covid cases among vaccinated people will go up. As we have less unvaccinated people the number of cases among the unvaxxed will go down. The numbers that are important are the rate among the vaccinated and the rate among the unvaccinated. These rates are confirming the efficacy of the vaccines although both the Delta variant and the apparent waning of effectiveness are muddying the waters. Both rates will go down as the unvaxxed get a free ride from the vaxxed – fingers still crossed on mutations and booster shots.
But immunity doesn’t mean you can’t get Covid
Even if a vaccine is 100% effective (none are), they don’t stop you from getting infected. Your immune system has no way to destroy pathogens before they enter the body. It can only fight them on home territory. Even if we are “immune” because of either prior infection or vaccination, pathogens we come in contact with do establish small beachheads on our bodies before being repelled by the prepared immune system. Unfortunately in the case of Covid even those beachheads – often too small to be noticed – can be the staging ground for infecting someone else. We vaccinated people are much less a breeding ground for virus than the unvaxxed; but we can still spread the disease.
95% effective doesn’t mean 95% improved protection at the individual level
Vaccines work by preparing your immune system to fight a particular pathogen. If you have a strong immune system, that preparation may well be enough to assure that it will always defeat the pathogen before it is a serious threat to you. On the other hand, if you have a weak immune system because of disease or treatment for disease, you will have a much smaller chance of beating back the disease. Your immune system will be forewarned but outgunned. The 95% statistic is a group statistic and useful for populations but not individuals. It is a blend of those for whom the vaccine is close to 100% effective and those for whom it is not very effective at all. That’s why the immunocompromised need – and are going to get – boosters ASAP.
And in conclusion
Get the damned shot if you haven’t. Get your booster as soon as it is available. And, even if vaxxed, wear your mask where there is high likelihood of getting or transmitting disease.
20 thoughts on “Tom Evslin: It’ll be a great day when 100% of Covid cases are in vaccinated people”
Covid is another word for the flu. If you don’t understand, this is what happened. You saw actors in Wuhan pretending to be dead everywhere. When the psyop moved to lockdown the “virus” changed it’s mind, yep, changed it’s mind. What a brilliant virus. Decided it’ll only be a two week vacation from work, or covid list on sports, and then good to go again. I mean who saw heaping piles of bodies on the sides of the roads anyway? No one. No one saw a pandemic. Not one single person. Of course the CDC admitted last year 94% of their reported “covid deaths” were of contributing factors because those 6% of people die of the flu every year of poor immune systems when they’re old, or have weakened their immune systems by other means as people always do, but you don’t have anyone get the flu at all last year, but people still did because it was called covid, then you have what is called a psyop. Six corporations controll everything on the teli. Have you been programmed to call yourself a Republican or Democrat, and follow your news tv program, programming you daily, trained against your opposition? Everyone thinks they’re on the good side. Good little robots. Bet you’re all watching the Afghan propaganda and think that’s all real too. So many actors in the cult.
Freudian slippage much: Tom Evslin: “It’ll be a great day when 100% of Covid cases are in vaccinated people” Really? Don’t look now -they are lol.
Highest number of cases are in the ‘v@xxed’ population lol:
‘Mathematically Impossible’ for Vaccines to Eliminate COVID
— In the U.K., symptomatic COVID-19 cases among “vaccinated” individuals have risen 40% in one week, reaching an average rate of 15,537 new infections a day being detected. Meanwhile, symptomatic COVID-19 cases among the unvaccinated has declined by 22% and is now at a current daily average of 17,588.
— This suggests the wave among unvaccinated has peaked and that natural herd immunity has set in, while “vaccinated” individuals are actually becoming more prone to infection.
— Data show countries with the highest COVID injection rates are also experiencing the greatest upsurges in cases, while countries with the lowest injection rates have the lowest caseloads.
— 100 fully injected crew members had tested positive onboard the British Defense aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth. The Navy ship has a case rate of 1 in 16 — the highest case rate recorded. This suggests vaccine-induced herd immunity is impossible, as these injections apparently cannot prevent COVID-19 even if 100% of a given population gets them.
— It is mathematically impossible for COVID shots to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 infection. The four available COVID shots in the U.S. provide an absolute risk reduction between just 0.7% and 1.3%. Meanwhile, the noninstitutionalized infection fatality ratio across age groups is a mere 0.26%. Since the absolute risk that needs to be overcome is lower than the absolute risk reduction these injections can provide, mass vaccination simply cannot have a favorable impact.
Iceland Top Doc Admits Natural Immunity Only Way To Herd Immunity
Aug 25, 2021 06:39 4649
Iceland is the 3rd most v@xxed country in the world and yet is experiencing more C0v2 cases than ever before. Now, the top epidemiologist in Iceland says natural immunity is the only way to herd immunity.
Busted much lol:
Some States Are Paying Social Media Influencers To Promote Information About The Vaccine Shannon Dawson August 10, 2021·3 min read
“The U.S. is turning to some unconventional ways to help promote the vaccine amongst individuals who are still hesitant about receiving the life-saving double dose. Colorado appears to be leading the change with its #PowertheComeback initiative. The state is calling on the help of some social media influencers…
…So how does it work? The vaccine social media gurus can be paid up to $1000 a month to help spread awareness about the lifesaving drug across platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook. ***Influencers are encouraged to share their personal stories of receiving the vaccine*** and to alert their followers of COVID-19 vaccination sites nearby.”
Yes Mr ‘thirty pieces of silver’ Evslin ‘shared his story’ which reeked of conjured fakery and if I had any money willing to bet fooled no one on TNR bc we’re smarter than the vaccine industry shills and your media influencer ilk.
I appreciate a publication with varying opinions, as space allows. If only the majority of media outlets were open to that. But I do think it is a bit early for Mr. Evslin’s conclusion. The study in Israel that is unsurprisingly showing that getting COVID builds a stronger immunity to the variants than the Pfizer “vaccine”, which is the shot mostly given in Israel. Left out of his thinking is the fact that for most of the population the survival rate from contracting COVID is quite a bit over 99% and overall it is above 98%.
So the case for hurrying down to the nearest “vaccine” center to get a shot is really quite weak and his statistics seem quite blind to those realities. At least that is my opinion and while in unknown territory, an environment for varied opinions and information is extremely important. Likewise, forcing things upon people in this territory is a very bad and wrong idea. Much better to chill out a bit, live life and learn as we travel.
Holy crap. I check out True North to avoid this sort of unadulterated retardery.
Here’s a fun read for anyone that likes thinking:
I suggest Tom Rumpelstiltskin get another couple of “jabs” if he’s so confident. Eff it, he should have a field day and get a dozen in a row. Tommy’s next of kin can let us all know how that works out in a few years.
Went up from *the* jab, to two…then it was three…now its one every five months? And there’s still ppl following the covid-theme bouncing ball – astonishing. Following the coming attraction – aftermath of pharma roadkill – all the morons who promoted this will be despised – I’m expecting violence when loved ones including children start dropping like flies – that is more than they already are.
The day I start taking advice from talking heads and politicians (ibid) is the day I throw away 70 years on the planet, and put diapers on again.
Daddy, Daddy, Daddy knows best. Just do what these know best vested interest corrupt mafia made men and women say… trust the politico’s!
NEVER read anything about 99.9% recovery means; or what ‘more deaths from the vaccine than from the illness’ means; or what part of ‘masks don’t work’ means; or what New World Order means; or what fascist oligarchy means.
Don’t do ANY of that – just be sheep – baa baa baa.
Japanese medical authorities recently recommended ivermectin for all Covid cases.
There are reasons not to get the shot: some have severe reactions and some die. The vaccines are experimental and no, the Pfizer vaccine hasn’t really been FDA approved. https://swprs.org/pfizer-fda-95-deception/
On the other hand, if everyone took safe and effective drugs for prophylaxis against Covid-19, it’s very likely that Covid would become a minor annoyance. Yet the authorities are busy suppressing these drugs, and even went to the lengths of manufacturing false trials to ‘prove’ hydroxychloroquine was dangerous. This is the world we live in now. A lot of people don’t want to admit that it’s that bad, but it is.
Vaccine passports will eventually led to the social credit system of monitoring and managing the population, as in China. That’s the goal, and that’s why they’re suppressing prophylaxis and herding everyone toward vaccines and vaccine passports. I wonder if Tom supports this type of social engineering for the greater good?
I did not know you were so intellectually challenged.
Get bent. Get lost.
Here, here! 😀 Nicely put lol
I had my COVID shot and had no side effects at all.
I recommend all people get it.
I understand some people have various reasons not to get the shot.
I hope to NEVER, EVER see the day, when people who did not get the shot, would be the ONLY people to die of COVID, which originated in China.
‘This Ends The Debate’ – Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13x More Effective Than Vaccines At Stopping Delta
Also, cloth masks (those blue things, and home-made, and designer made, a la Pelosi) are totally useless regarding COVID, per medical doctors, who typically use CUSTOM-FITTED, N-95 or N-99 masks that are changed each week.
Take the Jab , we did not fund your Pensions Better You all die , save the state Money it does not have
There’s a few assumptions being made here:
A: That the mRNA shot is a vaccine. It is not. Per the legal definition of vaccine it must stop transmission or at least slow down transmission. This does neither of those it is a treatment not a vaccine. Also a vaccine takes a piece of material and inserts it into your body that your body then reacts to creating antibodies. This does not do that this is an RNA strand made up in a simulation that is packaged inside of a peg (nano lipid particle made mostly of graphene oxide) that is intended to slip by your body’s defensive systems allowing it to be deposited inside of your cell where the RNA is then used to produce the proteins that cause or are the antibodies.
None of that fits the legal definition of vaccine, technically it’s actually a medical device since it isn’t living and it creates a reaction in the body.
B: That we have properly tested for this sickness. We have not. As a matter of fact the CDC has admitted and tests have been done to show that the PCR test cannot differentiate one coronavirus from another and therefore has counted the flu as covid 19.
“CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.”
Furthermore Mr Evslin, we are not dogs and you’re not going to tell us to go get our damn shot.
Please go get yourself educated before you post again.
Hear hear!! Well said.
Unbelievable that just a few years ago VT was positioning itself to be ‘The First’ when it came to labeling GMO’s in food, presumably because folks wanted to know what was entering their bodies.
Today those same folks line up to have an injection without knowing or caring what’s in it. Fear is a wonderful weapon.
I try to research all information I can get regarding both masks and the vaccine.
This is the latest thing I have phone and i’m having a hard time finding anyone to dispute what this woman is saying
From what she says it is obvious she has the qualifications and if you listened to her she certainly has knowledge about the issues she speaks of.
We’ve gone way too far when we expect others to get a shot but they don’t want to get or to wear a mask that on the box says does nothing to prevent the spread of covid.
Instead of living in fear I think people up to do exactly what they choose to do.
If you want to wear a mask wear a mask.
If you want to get the vaccine get the vaccine.
But please stop violating the constitutional rights of the people in the United states of America…
We live in a free country let’s keep it that way.
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