This analysis is by William Moore, a resident of Johnson. He is the spokesperson for Vermont Stands Up.
Vermonters deserve the best, most comprehensive, and robust information be used to set SARS CoV-2 policy and for guidance to critical institutions, especially Vermont schools. We deserve better and expect the need for critical analysis to become more integral to the Vermont Legislature as they also craft policy and respond in the development of bills before them. Vermonters will not stand for anything less.
Analysis of the numbers
The Vermont Department of Health COVID dashboard has a chart that shows cases in the fully vaccinated versus the not fully vaccinated as rates per 100,000. Looking at this chart, the cases in the “not fully vaccinated” appear to be outpacing cases in the “fully vaccinated.”
However, looking at the absolute numbers, meaning the total number of individuals in either category who tested positive, the opposite picture emerges. The number of individuals testing positive for COVID in the “fully vaccinated” category currently outnumbers those in the “not fully vaccinated” group (7,629 fully vaccinated versus 5,593 not fully vaccinated for the week of Jan. 9, 2022).
Further, when looking at absolute numbers of individuals in the hospital with COVID, the picture becomes even murkier. These numbers are so small that the “fully vaccinated” and “not fully vaccinated” become statistically indistinguishable; yet the public is repeatedly told that based on rates of COVID cases, especially the rate of cases amongst the unvaccinated, hospitals and the health care system are strained.
Why does the state only present their data as rates instead of showing both rates and absolute numbers?
The problem with using rates is people are misled into believing a higher rate means there are a higher number of individuals who are impacted. As the charts demonstrate, this is simply not true. Since there is such a disproportionate number of Vermonters who are not “fully vaccinated” (155,278 “not fully vaccinated” versus 468,710 “fully vaccinated”), the higher rate among the “not fully vaccinated” actually represents a smaller absolute number.
Utilizing only rates also assumes that the main difference between these two groups is vaccination status when there might be a number of confounding factors impacting whether someone comes down with COVID or not (health, age, mobility, exposure, risk tolerance, etc.). Therefore, these comparisons are problematic, especially when trying to make claims about causality.
However, setting that aside, if the COVID vaccines worked, the expectation is that virtually no one, or only a very small portion, of the “fully vaccinated” would test positive — but this has never been true. The absolute number of cases in the “fully vaccinated” and “not fully vaccinated” since the beginning of the Delta wave in August 2021 has ranged between 40-60% in both categories, meaning the average is 50% each, or virtually no difference at all. For the past three weeks, cases in the “fully vaccinated” have outpaced cases in the “not fully vaccinated.” This is not insignificant. Other countries, which have been open with their data and who are seeing a similar pattern, are now concluding the vaccines have a negative efficacy, meaning the “fully vaccinated” are more likely to get COVID, especially with the booster.
Vermonters should be able to readily see these numbers on the COVID dashboard instead of having to dig for them on the Vermont Open Geodata Portal. Earlier last year, the state presented absolute case numbers among the data, but this oddly dropped off after the summer when they started comparing groups by vaccination status. Was this because the absolute numbers didn’t fit the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” narrative?
It is malfeasance if the state is purposefully misleading the public by leaving out important parts of the COVID data set. Vermonters need to demand transparency. It is clear now these vaccines do not protect one from getting and spreading COVID, and therefore, have no population benefit whatsoever. It is inexcusable that this distinction is still being used to encourage discrimination against the small minority of Vermonters, who have chosen for personal reasons not to get COVID vaccinations.
21 thoughts on “‘Fully vaxxed’ COVID case numbers higher than ‘not fully vaxxed’ — Here’s why that matters”
For information from the Vermont Global Covid Summit go to vthope.net/cARDIS ovidts.html Take note of what Dr. Ardis says of Remdesivir an Dr Breggin, says about the behind the scenes unfolding if Covid protocols. They use documented medical studies in revealing Truth on Covid.
thank you Bill for digging into this statistical slight of hand….this is similar to Pfizer;s and Moderna’s reporting of their vaccine efficacy in terms of relative rates ( 95% effective ) , vs. absolute rates ( 1% ), to make their trials look much more convincing. Like you, I suspect the VT DOH has done this to cover up the fact that there is little difference in the numbers of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated who are being hospitalized or dying FROM ( not with ) Covid-19…. note that Commissoiner Levine is no longer saying this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The time honored concept of herd immunity has quietly vanished from the department’s press briefiing, as has the ethical dictate of the Nuremberg Code, the human right informed consent to medical experimentation. Truth will out!
Probably tomorrow we will hear that most Covid patients in hospital are unvaccinated.
Who are we supposed to believe?
The slight of hand of the pandemic of the unvaccinated is the fact that an individual is not considered vaccinated until a full 14 days post injection. However, the majority of injuries happen in that period, so if the individual goes to the hospital with a vaccine injury, and is tested as everyone is, using the PCR test that was supposed to be retired from use but hasn’t because it cannot tell the difference between dead and alive viral material and it does not know if the testee has flu, or corona or a cold, additionally offered at 40 cycles, the positive outcomes are a 96% given. This is how it is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. It’s actually a pandemic of vaccine injuries.
Not the people telling you that crap.
Many good comments below. Even the one person who is voicing objection to the authors treatment of the subject raises a relevant issue, however the minute you start using estimated population numbers, you have to introduce some sort of confidence interval, which the state site does not do. What are the numbers they are using to calculate the cases per 100,000? The number of fully vaccinated vs un-vaccinated are continually changing (due to immigration, death, the act of getting the vaccine, others).
One other glaring problem: the vaccination dashboard claims 100% of those 65 and over are fully vaccinated. Yet in the covid dashboard, they are showing a significant number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths as “unvaccinated”. This is an obvious error as one of these must be wrong.
On another topic, why haven’t any leaders taken a closer look at mask mandates? We have gone through several cycles of mask mandates with consistent PCR testing of subjects throughout the past two years. From my observations (link below), it appears that mask mandates are associated with HIGHER case numbers. From the very beginning two years ago, many cautioned against the general public using face coverings. This is why:
The boogie man lives under your bed !!
Similar to you will likely, infect your grandmother to die – without the Covid injection in your arm.
Covid seems to be happily convenient, if the goal is to make Americans into sheep,
ready to follow the next “we’re all going to die” exercise.
There is a reason the obviously effective treatments were ignored and rejected by political professionals ?!
Because its never been about being healthy, getting healthy or staying healthy.
Walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, looks like a duck. Occam’s Razor.
This is about the CCP taking control of our economy through debt (we’ll throw money at you but you gotta’ pay up later with kowtowing, obedience and compliance and then we MIGHT give you back A freedom or two), enslaving us, keeping us enslaved, obedient and compliant.
And ignorant. Above all: Keep us ignorant.
Read your Scripture folks… by the book Satanic take over. All predictable. All foreseeable.
All forestallable if you give up your ignorance and decide to inform yourself, and reclaim your Sovereignty as Divine Beings.
Ignorance IS the tool of Satan…keeping you in it, and making you scared of it. Willful ignorance is a choice at this point.
Do not comply.
Oh…and no viruses have EVER been divided. TERRAIN, the movie, comes out on the 5th. Might wanna watch.
“Isolated” not divided.
The truth has finally seen the light of day and they can’t hide it any longer.. The vax don’t work
it can make you sick and disabled, it can even kill you and it’s the breeding ground for new
variants.. when do the hangings start for those responsible for creating this bio weapon and
the tyrants that killed our economy for a lie??? and especially those that blocked real treatment
that would have worked..
Thank you, William Moore, for explaining rates and absolute numbers, in a way that i could understand. Now if we can only get the masses of brainwashed people to see, read and believe this truth.
yes thank you William Moore and Rebecca, if they dont want to know and understand we cant make them…it just amazes me how one can see only the one big lie……I’m tired of all the tuesday press conferences from a man I have trusted and voted for……no more
The problem with NOT using rates is that people don’t get an accurate picture of the odds. A person in a group that has a 78% chance of falling sick for lack of preventive care is worse off than a person in the group that has a 32% chance of falling sick because they received preventive care.
If 5,000 people in a population of a million die of smallpox even though they were vaccinated against it and 250 people in an unvaccinated population fo 500 die, it cannot be said that one is 20 times more likely to die if they get a smallpox IZ.
And the closer the groups are in size, the more accurate the comparison by rate. In the world of sampling, a population around 1,200 is considered highly reliable.
Rather surprising to see in comments about the pandemic the lack of an instinct for discussing what could have and ought to have been done differently.
“Rather surprising to see in comments about the pandemic the lack of an instinct for discussing what could have and ought to have been done differently.” So, discuss?
Latest from “The Lancet,” January, 2022: “This study [a different study, by Singanayagam] showed that the impact of vaccination on community transmission of circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 appeared to be not significantly different from the impact among unvaccinated people.”
We were told, emphatically, that vaccines would stop transmission. If I wanted to I could get all the quotes from Fauci, Gates, Levine, etc. This isn’t happening. Because … open eyes and look at Vermont??
It’s time to stop the madness of “vaccines are the way to go.” For some people, perhaps yes, but reaching down to vaccinate our youngest children who are at very low risk for Covid is insane. They are not “protecting granny.” They’re being harmed by experimental gene therapy– let’s face it, these vaccines don’t cause the body to produce antibodies, they cause the body to produce toxic spike proteins– whose potential adverse events our beloved pie-in-the-sky authorities are very keen to not see, not report, and not care much about. They live in a la-la land of “the narrative” coming out of the mouth of the Narrator-in-Chief, Dr. Fauci.
Time to get real. Time to stop chasing that dream. It isn’t working.
I saw, and see, a whole lot of discussions- and I also see a one party state that has no interest at all in listening to anyone challenging the policy set by the regime controlling Vermont.
Discussions are great, and needed, but when you are in a state where The Right has no voice, no representation and no power- one does wonder what the point is.
People are only going to talk to the wall for just so long.
We never needed the vaccines.
We needed early treatment. The first early treatment available to us was the Zelenko protocol, March 23, 2020. This protocol using hydroxchloroquine (and azithromycin and zinc) was completely dismissed. What we learned later was that studies purporting to dismiss this drug used high doses in sick, hospitalized patients, when the whole point of the drug was to check viral replication at the onset of disease using safe doses in outpatients. We even have the real studies that demonstrate efficacy and safety of this drug when used early, and they’re overwhelmingly positive: we should have been using this. https://c19hcq.com/
Remarkably, the entire medical establishment ganged up on this drug after the large RECOVERY and SOLIDARITY trials demonstrated no effect in sick, hospitalized patients using doses that were borderline lethal. Surprise. Studies designed to fail: designed, perhaps, to warn physicians off this drug? Why? Maybe so that there would be no treatment available for Covid-19, and thus EUA– which depends on no available treatment for the disease in question — could be authorized for the Covid vaccines. Now the government– we, the taxpayers– pays for all these vaccines (and boosters) and many are pushing for mandates so that even more money gets siphoned from the taxpayers to the drug companies.
Along came Drs. Fareed and Tyson and in their book, “Overcoming the Covid Darkness,” they tell of something very close to the Zelenko protocol they used to treat 7,000 patients, with no deaths and very few hospitalizations. This book confirms what Zelenko’s first short study told us; it confirms what we knew about the mechanisms of action of hydroxychloroquine, and it confirms what virtually all of the in vitro studies told us when the news first came out of its potential clinical significance for Covid-19. Did Drs. Fareed and Tyson tell Dr. Fauci? You bet. Fauci’s answer: he ignored them completely.
It wasn’t so bad that Dr. Fauci dismissed this drug’s efficacy as “anecdotal” at a time when virtually everything about Covid-19 was anecdotal. But that misleading studies were produced, and that the medical community failed to recognized that these studies had nothing to do with early treatment when early treatment was very clearly expressed in the original Zelenko protocol, really was gross incompetence and negligence at a crucial time when we needed all eyes on the ball. Was it deliberate malfeasance?
We had the correct path laid out in front of us, and Fareed and Tyson show us that that was the true path. How’s that vaccine thing working out for us? How did lockdowns and abusing our children through school shutdowns and masks work out? No other choice? No other options? Nothing else we could have done? Don’t tell me we didn’t know: we knew. Any competent physician could have seen what was going on. Still, even now we persist in persecuting physicians who dare to treat early with a drug used safely for decades. It’s nothing but insanity.
Former NY Times reporter Alex Berenson wrote this last week:
“AN URGENT WARNING
The world’s most mRNA vaccinated countries now have shockingly high Covid infection rates. Hospitalizations and deaths are rising fast too. The mRNA experiment needs to stop. Immediately.”
We also can’t forget that the data is not distinguishing between hospitalized “for/from” COVID and “with” COVID. We know that many (perhaps as much as 50-60%) will be hospitalized for another condition, test positive in the hospital and then be categorized as a “COVID hospitalization”. This needs to be clarified.
We could even look deeper and ask the question: are the hospital staff/nurses testing the vaccinated at same rates as unvaccinated people, or is there a bias?
Overall, great points in this article. I look forward to more analysis and more pressure being placed on the Dept. of Health!
The numbers will be even more slanted when you rule out the following:
1) No one is considered “fully vaccinated” until 14 days past their second dose. Interestingly, a large percentage of vaccine adverse events are reported within this time window.
2) The CDC only counts breakthrough cases if they result in hospitalization or death.
3) All cases are categorized “unvaxxed” until they find a matching vax record.
4) Once a third shot becomes the norm, those with only two will technically be considered unvaxxed.
5) CDC lab guidance sets a lower, less sensitive PCR threshold (28 cycles) for the vaccinated vs. 37-40 for the unvaccinated–a clear double standard.
There may be other statistical tricks in use, but even this list can seriously muddy the data we are getting. I wonder if we’ll come to a point where health authorities have to resort to outright lies instead of lying under statistical cover.
Resort to? Ha!
Hey look what’s going on in Japan!!!!
Leaders who followed the WHO, the United Nations rather than our constitution and medical science should be removed from office for not upholding their duties.
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