Top state economist on S.5 cost: ‘More is coming down the pike’

A controversial policy overhaul that seeks to tax existing heat sources while subsidizing new technologies had its carbon-credit trading scheme reviewed on Tuesday in the House Appropriations Committee, and a top state economist warned that the policy’s costs will “likely be greater” in future budgets.

S.5 would involve the Public Utility Commission creating a newly created credit system meant to dissuade the public from purchasing carbon-based heating fuels by adding artificial costs to conventional heating fuels.

“The bill in front of us has the PUC develop the marketplace and the rules for implementing the clean heat standard through a public process and with those technical and equity experts,” Rep. Laura Sibilia, I-Dover, told committee members.

She said that if implemented, “each year obligated parties must retire clean heat credits — those are tradable, non-tangible commodities that represent the amount greenhouse gases reductions caused by a clean heat measure.”

Costs will ‘likely be greater in future’

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Joyce Manchester, senior economist at the Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office

Joyce Manchester, the senior economist for the Joint Fiscal Office, briefly spoke with the committee at the end of the meeting. She noted that this is “going to have to be more state-supported” if it is going to continue as a permanent policy.

According to Manchester, the fiscal note currently calculated for the bill is for 2024, and may not  accurately represent the ongoing costs of this initiative. She said $1.72 million dollars is the impact on the state’s general fund for the coming fiscal year — which would still be before the law’s formal implementation

She said the impact “would likely be greater in future years because of the increased investments over time,” adding, “OK, so that’s the hint that more is coming down the pike.”

More changes through 2025

Sibilia noted that if approved this year, the rules would undergo further development through the next two years and it would eventually require approval by the governor, who has generally spoken critically of the bill.

“The 2025 legislature will vote to approve those rules to implement the clean heat standard or they may change the rules,” Sibilia said, “They may do nothing with the rules, or they may repeal the statutory provisions of S.5.”

Clean Heat Credits

state of Vermont

Vermont Rep. Laura Sibilia, I-Dover

Sibilia explained more about how this credit trading system will work.

“Clean heat credits may be retired by delivering fuel, by investing in technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or by contracting out or purchasing clean heat credits,” she said. “The commission will establish the number of clean heat credits that obligated parties must retire each year to set a pace for Vermont’s thermo-sector to achieve the greenhouse gas emission reductions required as part of the Global Warming Solutions Act.”

Can Vermont go it alone?

Sibilia addressed the oft-cited critique that Vermont’s climate policies will have no impact on the earth’s climate patterns.

“I will say, to the horror of most of my environmental friends, that I mostly agree,” she said.

Sibilia continued that these efforts are still worth it. One reason she gave is that thermal heating fuels are currently a volatile market and that Vermonters are currently paying $2 more per gallon of heating fuel than they did in 2021.

Another reason she cited is that national governments are initiating pressure to reduce carbon emissions especially since they’ve signed onto the Paris Accords of 2015, and those activities are “changing markets.”

Still unknown what impact this bill will have

Manchester signaled that currently there is no estimate of benefits Vermonters can expect from S.5 with regard to climate.

“There are some very technical calculations to be made on how much greenhouse gas reduction occurs with each measure. So if you install a heat pump at a home, what value do you assign to the greenhouse gas emission reduction and how is that spread out over time in terms of life-cycle,” she said.

Michael Bielawski is a reporter for True North. Send him news tips at bielawski82@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @TrueNorthMikeB.

Images courtesy of Public domain, Linkedin and state of Vermont

14 thoughts on “Top state economist on S.5 cost: ‘More is coming down the pike’

  1. What’s coming down the pike is insolvency. I heard an analyst from the State of Washington talk about what is going on there. It was the same shenanigans as Vermont. Many States in the Union are infilitrated with the same political hacks who are all working from the same script. They are WEF, NWO, Soros-funded, cartel-affilitated idgits. The analyst opined most legislators and elected officials in Washington State have no clue what they are doing. Above all, they have no clue what is coming. They are purposely left out of the inner-circle plans, doing the bidding of their puppet masters, and the rug will be pulled out from underneath them the same way as the majority of their constituents. The backlash coming upon them from their constituents will be swift and brutal. It is happening in Europe now. Nothing can stop what is coming. There are some who are stepping down, running for their bunkers, or switching parties hoping to survive. They may believe they have the power and control. They do not. The house of cards is crashing down. It will get really bad for a time. Worse for them and that is their cross to bear.

  2. Of course this gwsa is going to be the blunder of all blunders, there was not a thought put in to what the ramifications would be only that it gets enacted. When you have leftist commie lunatics who can’t even get a clue from their leftist buds in adjoining states who SAW the cost of this colossal clusterfck would ruin their economies and dropped it, you know it’s going to be bad. The worst part of it all is it does absolutely NOTHING in lowering world wide co2 and nothing that will affect temperatures or climate of VT. We might just as well flush our own money down the toilet… we don’t have leaders in montpeculiar, we have a bunch of idiots..

  3. “Sibilia addressed the oft-cited critique that Vermont’s climate policies will have no impact on the earth’s climate patterns, “I will say, to the horror of most of my environmental friends, that I mostly agree,” she said. Sibilia continued that these efforts are still worth it. One reason she gave is that thermal heating fuels are currently a volatile market and that Vermonters are currently paying $2 more per gallon of heating fuel than they did in 2021.”

    Rep. Sibilia must understand that adding $ billions in carbon credit fees to the price of heating fuel consumed in Vermont over the coming years can only increase the price per gallon, no matter the volatility due to market conditions. S.5 is nothing short of economic suicide and energy poverty for Vermont.

    I am glad Rep. Sibilia is finally seeing the light. Will she be courageous enough, as her fellow Democrat committee member, Rep. Morris was, to vote No on S.5, and to vote Yes next session to repeal the GWSA, which she now recognizes is in fact a Non-Solution to Global Warming?

    • ms. rep. sibilia is gaslighting. Nothing more than pretending and gaslighting. her specific statement of “Continued efforts are worth it” keeps her firmly in the liars column. sibilia’s recent kerfuffle with Vermont Daily Chronicle’s Guy Page over reporting of S.5 is further evidence of sibilia’s desire to deceive her constituents, by using semantics over substance.
      Turns out, Mr. Pages reporting was correct.
      Legislative leadership has paraded members out at different times to rally support and continue the deceptions of S.5- macdonald, bray, mccormick,white and now sibilia. None of these senators and representatives can adequately justify S.5 or any other part of the GWSA to us, falling back on the tired platitude of “we must do something”.
      If the GWSA and S.5 is to be taken down, it will be from attacking the “equity” portions of the GWSA- as in no way is any of the existing or proposed legislation “equitable” to low income populations in Vermont. It’s been a while since much has been said about the “equity” committees- because these committees cannot agree to even function as desired by legislative decree.

    • The abysmal ignorance and incompetence of legislators is beyond belief.
      They are not able to look at any issue on an A-to-Z basis.
      They endlessly repeat snippets of talking points fed to them by self-serving RE lobbyists
      They, like sheep, vote the party line!!

      My 3 heat pumps with 6 heads, of which 3 are in the bedrooms for cooling, saved me about $200 during each OF THE PAST THREE YEARS in energy cost, on an “investment” of $24,000, minus $2400 GMP subsidy to entice me so I would be buying about 2400 more kWh/y.

      It took 3 experienced technicians 3 days to install the system, plus one call-back for adjustments.

      I DISPLACE only 34% of my fossil Btus with electricity Btus, because it is LESS COSTLY PER HOUR, to operate my propane furnace, which also produces hot water

      I calculated, I would need almost 9000 kWh/y to displace 100% of SPACE HEATING Btus, but I would still need my existing propane furnace to make hot water. Heat pumps become less efficient the colder it gets.

      However, the annual system inspection and cleaning of the heads to prevent alga build up, costs $350/y, periodic maintenance, parts, labor are in addition, plus the big elephant in the room is the $21600 amortization at 6% over 15 years at about $2200/y.

      NO VOLATILITY OF PROPANE AND FUEL OIL PRICES COMES EVEN CLOSE TO JUSTIFYING THIS EXTREMELY WASTEFUL, INEFFECTIVE APPROACH

      PLUS IT WILL NOT HAVE ONE IOTA OF IMPACT ON CLIMATE.

      CHINA AND INDIA, ADD MORE THAN 50% OF THE HUMAN CO2
      THEY ARE “DEVELOPING” COUNTRIES

      I am a retired energy systems engineer, with about 40 years of experience in analysis, design and construction of energy systems

  4. The increase in gasoline and oil prices are driven largely by Biden’s anti-hydro carbon policies “All of Government” approach. That is the plan, to drive low cost energy prices up so renewables look better. We have not see the true cost estimates of Net Zero all renewables. It will be in the $50-$100 TRILLION range for the US alone.
    One of the things we don’t see being addressed by the S-5 advocates and Climate Council is where does Vermont get it’s electrical power from in the Net Zero future they propose? The electricity VT buys today from gas or oil fired sources will certainly be “off the table”. Wind and solar are losers (especially in VT) when all costs including battery back-up are included. The effective output vs. nameplate ratings for both are approximately 25%.

  5. I will continue to burn dirty wood for heat. I will not participate in this liberal madness. The only fossil fuel I use in my home is propane for my refrigerator and stove. I will be taking the 100 pound tanks to New Hampshire to have them filled, about 5 or 6 a year. I will be buying everything in New Hampshire from now on to avoid paying sales taxes to a socialist state that squanders our money on worthless homeless junkies and criminals.

  6. I want them to do something useful to curb CO2; like block all jet travel into and out of Vermont, and the same with people driving in to vacation, sky, and peep at leaves. Then lets also eliminate diesel powered snow plows, and road work, along with the trucks bringing in food and any other supplies. After that, how about they start buying the homes of people at market value so smart people cam leave for America.

    • Funny you mention snowplows, Ed…..besides the diesel they burn, snowplows run by the State of Vermont are one of the larger polluters to Lake Champlain. Recall that the state put in $$$onerous new law for parking lot blacktop stormwater runoff? In 2022 there is 7,182 miles of paved roads in VT…and two major interstates Rt.91 & 89. What do so many roads & interstates in VT have in common? For ease of building them back then, many followed RIVERS…instead of cutting thru mountains…..RIVERS….many rivers flow directly into Lake Champlain. During winter the State of VT, towns… slather BLACKTOP roads (exactly same as regulated “blacktop” parking lot)…with sand, salt, chemicals & debris…all of that drains directly into rivers, streams & much ends up in Lake Champlain. So the new BLACKTOP parking lot storm water LAW…expense $.. is a joke…because add up how much in chemicals, salt, sand and debris the STATE itself pollutes, Rt.91. Rt.89…RT.2, Rt.14… wash into Champlain from 7,182 miles of “Enviro-Evil” Blacktop :)..Of course the STATE is exempt from pollution laws or liability 🙂

      • VT has 7,182 miles of Blacktop roads & large Interstates. It is winter sand, salt & chemical polluted, much into rivers… then Champlain. The width of the USA is 2,800 miles…7,182miles of VT blacktop roads will drive from Atlantic …to Pacific ocean, back to the Atlantic….and then 60% of the way back to Pacific.. Every sq foot gets winter, sand, salt, chemical. How about DIRT ROADS in VT? There are 7,577 miles of maintained gravel & dirt roads in VT…..so another 7,500 miles of polluting, BAD ENVIRO sand & road salt. Add it up? Paved, Interstates & gravel/dirt? It’s 14,759 miles of pollution, salt, sand, chemical roads….enough to drive the width of the USA, 5.25 times!..the Polluter is the State and Towns. Why do the Enviro activists in Montpelier (three notable, evil groups) they only sue private entities, people & businesses?…but never the likely largest polluter – the State itself ?

        • Hmm, by yours and Ed’s logic, why don’t we just shut down Vermont and forcibly move everyone into a city somewhere, maybe post fences and guards so we don’t sneak out? Or maybe just move back into caves and hunt with stone weapons?

          • That will save the Earth

            GO RE WOKE, GO BIG TIME BROKE

            BECOME A TRUE NATIVE AGAIN WITH POW WOWS AROUND CAMPFIRES, HUNTING AND FISHING, AND SUBSISTENCE FARMING, AND FREEZING IN THE DARK, WITH SHORT LIFESPANS

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