By Rob Roper

The IRS recently released their latest data showing where people filed their tax returns from one year to the next. Apart from interesting information about revenue, it also paints a clear picture about interstate migration. Several publications, including the Wall Street Journal, analyzed the spreadsheets and came to the same conclusions: high tax, heavily regulated blue states are losing people and tax revenue to low-tax, free-enterprise oriented red states.

Inspiring the biggest exodus was California, which lost 332,000 residents who took $29.1 billion in income with them when they left. New York lost 262,000 people and $24.5 billion. Illinois 105,000/$10.9 billion, and Massachusetts 44,000/$4.28 billion. The only “red” state to make the top five worst performers was Louisiana, which has a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature.

Where are all these blue state refugees fleeing to? For the most part to Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. Florida alone gained 255,834 people who brought over $39 billion worth of income to the Sunshine State. Texas welcomed 174,000 new residents and their nearly $11 billion. Overwhelmingly it is the wealthier individuals, those with above average incomes, abandoning the blue states leaving lower income folks behind to shoulder those increasingly heavy tax burdens. It’s a fiscal death spiral.

Now, which of these two batches of states does Vermont most resemble? Group A, with their sky-high marginal income tax rates, infatuation with throwing money at unprofitable green energy schemes, over-promised public pension benefits with underfunded trusts, and woke policies on everything from crime to education? Or Group B, with their no-to-low-income taxes, prudent fiscal and business friendly philosophies, and common-sense regulatory environments that actually allow for things like affordable housing to happen? And by “affordable housing” I mean housing people can afford to buy or rent on their own without taxpayer subsides.

If states are indeed the laboratories of democracy, let’s apply the scientific method to what we are witnessing here. For those who think “following the science” is simply believing whatever Dr. Sanjay Gupta says on CNN, the scientific method is a process of presenting a hypothesis, subjecting it to repeated experimentation, and observing the results of those experiments to determine whether or not the original hypothesis was correct.

The hypothesis being tested by the red states is that if you create an environment in which people are more free to make their own decisions, exercise their own judgement, and are allowed to keep more of what they earn, they will come, stay, and thrive. Through the results of the several red state experiments listed above, this hypothesis would appear to be proven correct.

The hypothesis being tested by the blue states is that if government confiscates more of people’s income, and “invests” it in programs designed to redistribute wealth and expand access to government services while using its regulatory powers to channel citizens’ behavior into activities it deems most desirable and away from those it does not approve of, then people will come, stay, and thrive. Through the results of the several blue state experiments listed above, this hypothesis would appear to be a flaming bag of dog poo. Or, in the cases of California and New York in particular, piles of human excrement littering the sidewalks.

Yet this blue state blueprint is what Vermont lawmakers have doubled and tripled down on with a zeal that can only make Gavin Newsom’s head spin with bewildered admiration. We still hear the arguments that if we just provide free daycare to all children (paid for with a new payroll tax) young families will move here. And if we just provide a government funded and directed paid family leave benefit (yet another payroll tax) more workers will move here. If that’s not enough, state-run, taxpayer-funded healthcare will bring them in in droves! Nope. This is not what’s happening here or anywhere else. Quite the opposite.

We have a labor shortage in Vermont. Workers like high wages, so how about a government mandated “livable wage” to fix the problem? News flash: the workers are moving to states with the lowest allowable minimum wage, $7.25 (North & South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Florida’s is $11.00), and away from states with the highest minimum wages (California at $15.50, Massachusetts and New York at $15, and Illinois at $13). Turns out greater opportunity to work and advance, and the chance to keep more of what you earn while spending less of it on what you need is a more attractive incentive for productive people.

But we must prepare for the rush of climate change refugees who will flood into Vermont to escape the ravages of global warming. Sorry again, folks. Look at what direction these migratory patterns are taking: away from the blue Canadian border and toward the red equator. So, if global warming is as dire as you say it is, dear elected lawmakers, people are voting with their feet that they think living under your policies is a worse fate than inevitable spontaneous combustion. Think about that.

Vermont has been able to get away with a history of disastrous policies because for a long time the federal government has bequeathed us far more than our share of loot from the national treasury. Like a wealthy and overindulgent uncle continuously bailing out a somewhat dimwitted favorite nephew’s wacky business schemes, we have been insulated from the worst consequences of our own stupidity. Love him or hate him, Patrick Leahy did bring a lot of pork back to this state. But, Leahy, our indulgent rich uncle, is no longer writing us outsized checks from Washington. Peter Welch is no Pat Leahy. So, we better get our act together, grow up fast, and start adopting responsible policies and programs that work to solve real problems in real world conditions. We know what they are.

Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com