Swing district Republicans won midterms by large margins in previous blue strongholds

By Arjun Singh

Republicans won swing House districts by large margins in blue states where President Joe Biden won in 2020, according to election data by NBC News.

Nine House Districts in California, New York, Oregon, and Pennsylvania that Biden won in 2020 swung for GOP candidates by at least 10 points, according to an analysis by the DCNF of election data published by NBC News, with the total swing being 17 seats, compared to nine such seats in 2020. The largest swing came for Republican Rep. Mike Garcia of California, whose 27th District covered San Bernardino and the San Fernando Valley of Democratic-stronghold Los Angeles, which voted for Biden by 12.4% in 2020 but swung 8.4% for Garcia this year, a 20.8% shift in favor of Republicans.

Among GOP candidates who flipped House districts to Republicans, Rep.-elect Lori Chavez Deremer of Oregon’s 5th District and Rep.-elect Mike Lawler of New York’s 17th District won their Biden-voting seats by margins of more than 10%, with Lawler defeating Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney by 10.3%. Most of the 17 Republicans who won such districts were new electees rather than incumbents.

Additionally, George Santos, the Representative-elect for New York’s 3rd District, became only the second Republican to represent New York City in Congress after Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of the 11th District. Santos won his seat, becoming the first openly gay, Jewish and Latino Republican in Congress, which encompasses northeastern Queens, by a margin of 8.2%, a 16.4% swing since 2020 during Biden’s candidacy.

Moreover, New York’s 4th District, which covers New York City-area towns of Oceanside and Long Beach outside Queens, went Biden by 14.5% in 2020 but swung in the GOP’s favor by 18.3%, making GOP candidate Anthony D’Esposito the Representative-elect by a 3.8% margin. Other GOP candidates, including Rep. Young Kim of California’s 40th District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania’s 1st District, and Rep. Michelle Steel of California’s 45th District won their Biden-voting seats by significant margins.

The significant swing in favor of Republicans in several districts Biden won, with Cook Partisan Voting Index scores in favor of Democrats, come as welcome news for the GOP amid disappointment over the absence of a “red wave” this election. Republicans, so far, have obtained a slim House majority and lost one Senate seat in Pennsylvania.

Though most House seats that Biden won in 2020 were held by Democrats this year, the substantial number of seats swinging Republican, 17, are likely the basis for the GOP’s majority.

Multiple Republicans have blamed former President Donald Trump for the loss, following his heavy involvement in the midterms and numerous endorsements of candidates in Republican primaries across the country.  Forty-two Trump-backed candidates won, while 29 lost.

“Despite the fact that 70 percent of the country thinks we’re on the wrong track, two-thirds think we’re in a recession, people are pessimistic about the future, and people largely believe Biden’s policies are hurting, not helping, they still opted to stick with that over the alternative, which I’m afraid they associate with Trump,” Scott Jennings, a GOP political strategist and former advisor to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, told CNN.

The Republican National Committee and House Republican Conference did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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2 thoughts on “Swing district Republicans won midterms by large margins in previous blue strongholds

  1. The false premises continue. According to this post, the eight Republican seat gains in the house (“the ones that made the difference in who controlled the House of Representatives”) were only so-called moderate RINOs “who ran on a platform of addressing the problem of inflation”.

    The primary implied fallacy, of course, is that those Republicans who weren’t ‘moderate’, and still won election, didn’t address inflation, and that there were no other issues of concern – e.g., border security, religious freedom, foreign policy, parental rights, national debt, student debt, reproductive rights, law and order, etc.

    The tell: Mr. Freitag doesn’t identify any of these so-called ‘moderate’ Republicans.

    But yes, there is a lesson here, if only Mr. Freitag would learn it.

  2. It should be noted that these Republicans that were elected in these swing districts, and the ones that made the difference in who controlled the House of Representatives, were fior the most part moderate Republicans (which some refer to derogatorily as RINO’s) who ran on a platform of addressing the problem of inflation. Perhaps a lesson here?

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