By Don Keelan
The good news is that the Norfolk Southern Railroad Company does not operate in Vermont.
Although it might run as the part-ownership of CSX/PAR, we are saved from the havoc Norfolk Southern created in East Palestine, Ohio. However, our train wreck is coming down the tracks: S.5 recently passed by a vote of 18-10 by the Vermont Senate.
Don Keelan
In a subtle move, S.5 will have all Vermont homes and businesses convert from fossil fuels to electricity. Its methodology is so convoluted and its implementation so costly that an amendment was attached postponing its start for two years. During that time, the Agency of Natural Resources will study how the bill’s complex structure will work or not work.
More bad news was directed at certain Vermont Climate Council members, who had a large hand in seeing that S.5 got through the Vermont Senate. There are members of the 23-person council who would personally gain from the adoption and immediate implementation of S.5. To have a direct conflict of interest was never a reason for not serving on the council.
Regardless, my wife and I are considering converting our 200-year-old home and our transportation needs to all-electric. We determined that the train-wreck is coming, and we want to get ahead. We obtained cost estimates from our electrician and heating contractors, and from Tesla. Below are our discoveries:
- Buy 10 Mitsubishi heat pump units — $60,000
- Provide Electric service to each pump — $8,000
- Convert oil-fired furnace to stand-by mode — $1,000
- Replace kitchen Garland gas stove with electric — $5,000
- Replace gas stove in den with pellet stove — $4,000
- Replace 33amp Winco gas-fired generator with equivalent two-week backup battery storage unit — $60,000
- Provide new building for battery storage due to fire risk — $20,000
- Add electric service to house for 200 amps — $5,000
- Replace all external garden/field gas equipment — $6,000
- Install a Level 3 charger in garage — $1,000
- Replace two gas cars with Tesla, Model Y Longrange — $55,000
- Contingency/sales taxes at 10% of above — $22,000
The total estimated cost to do full-conversion to electric is $247,000!
There may be credits to offset the above and the sale of our cars, one a 2002 Tahoe, and the equipment. However, we are doubtful anyone would want to purchase gas-fired equipment knowing that they will be forced to convert at a future date.
We will, however, no longer need to send dollars out of state to pay for 1,600 gallons of fuel oil and 600 gallons of propane. Instead, we will be sending more money not only out of state but out of country, to Green Mountain Power’s parent company in Canada.
After some soul searching, my wife and I decided that we have to ignore that the batteries to be installed in our house and car have material mined in The Democratic Republic of Congo. Upon further research, the mining is referred to as artisanal mining (by hand) and accomplished by men, women and children (read Cobalt Red). Moreover, the metals used to make the batteries are processed in communist China under horrible working conditions. As long as such working conditions are not local, we can, at least for now, ignore them and get on with the conversion.
We have some issues to overcome before we can convert: will our tradespeople be available? Will the supply chain meet our deadline? And most critically, where will we obtain $247,000?
One can surmise that Vermont has a dozen train wrecks to deal with and more on the way. Why would the Legislature set another wreck in motion? Could it be that out-of-state influencers are driving this train?
Don Keelan writes a bi-weekly column and lives in Arlington, Vermont.
Sorry to add salt to the energy wound Don, Your costs are off on the electrical service side of things.
In order to install a Level 3 Charger, you’ll need a three phase 480V service, if it’s even available from GMP in your area. Big bucks, as you’ll need to re work things all the way to the nearest three phase line… Even a Level 2 at 80 amp charging level will likely require more than a 200 amp residential service.
All of this, the GWSA, S.5 and the plethora of bills, committees, boards and regulations is a lie.
Our supposed representatives have become very comfortable perpetuating these lies- and perhaps some of them actually believe their rhetoric- but most seem beholden to the donor class and lobbyist.
It is almost too late to change this “climate crisis” legislation, we the electorate allowed some very shrewd politicians and lobbyists to pass the GWSA in 2020, using “special” rules formulated to work around SARS CoV-2, in the same way “special” rules were codified to permanently change our election processes.
The underlying fact is that the legislature has moved from a representative form of government to a totalitarian government. And we allowed it.
Is it even feasible/plausible that they can legislate this on us when no one can afford it? Do they have the staff and resources to fine all of us? I priced heat pumps for my old house in 2019 at $70K to do our 4 story house and goest house – but I am pretty sure the price has gone up A LOT since then. I don’t have that kind of money now, and that is not counting in the cost of an electrician to get it all wired.
Is there such a thing as replacing your oil heater with a pellet stove in the same location and keep your same boiler? I am not a native of up here and don’t plan on becoming a naturalized “worker” in the Socialist Republic of Vermont – still looking at retiring earlier than later.
AND I thought this was not supposed to go into effect until 2030?
God help us all.
Don’s posting is spot on. We’ve been saying this ever since this bill was brought up.
Vermont is becoming the East Palestine of home heating, brought to you by a posse of overzealous, energy-naive, “get a blanket” Legislators, aiming to get their jollies
off and re-elected
That posse likely never analyzed, design, or operated any energy systems.
That posse is telling Vermonters “shut up, we are doing it to you for your own good”, plus “little, tiny speck, Vermont will save the would, come hell or high water”.
That posse is not telling you they are doing it “as a rewarded/paid-for? CONSTITUENT SERVICE” to enhance the business interests of special interests will all those lobbyists in Montpelier
Did I leave something out?
I did.
They are also doing it to advance the PARTY agenda
These Legislators read our venting and laugh us off as a bunch of kooks that did not vote Dem/Prog anyway.
These Legislators know all their government programs bribe enough people to get their vote to keep them in office forever; BIG GOVERNMENT IS THEIR SAVIOR
Bingo, Willem. But I want to make clear that these legislators are not only Dem/Progs, they include many in the Republican establishment. And I believe those TNR readers who have paid any attention to what I’ve published here know who I think they are.
The question is: what to do about it? One of these RINOs interjected that my characterization of the extent to which these bribed masses control the government (at least 40% of the Vermont workforce as it is) was tantamount to ‘surrender’.. to which I responded that to be an ill-advised assessment.
However, while I have a strategy and am following it these days, I was wondering if you have any recommendations?
Post script: a word of caution…. I have been reluctant to share my strategy publicly for fear of telegraphing it to what is, in effect, ‘the enemy’.
Back in January I wrote a commentary that appeared in Here and the VT. Chronicle. I ended my commentary by saying – “So, the reason to immediately pass expensive, radical environmental bills and put the financial squeeze on low and middle income working Vermonters comes downs to this. Follow the money, follow the money, follow the money.”
I’m so glad to see others are now beginning to follow the money from lobbyists to the Global Warming Committee members to Legislators to their friends and who will financially benefit. However, the facts need broader distribution before more Vermonters will hear the truth about what is really going on.
Even if we achieve zero emissions, Vermont as a state will have NO effect in reducing the global carbon load, so as far as I’m concerned this is ALL just about politics and money, not about saving the planet.
Do not expect the mainstream media to help you, because they are too busy inventing cover stories for evil doings.
It they did not, they would lose ACCESS to sources, a poison pill
I am sure that the liberal legislators are forging ahead with the conversion because of the lobbyist money that they received to put S5 in motion and a little extra money for a rainy day fund. That vote was bought and paid for.
Someone should do a poll and see if these legislators are leading by example, having adopted all aspects (100% heat pumps, ev car(s)-not hybrids, etc.) as opposed to taking a “do as I say, not as I do” approach……
It is clear to me that many legislators are not representing the wishes of the people of VT. Vermont is not ready for this radical change and many Vermonters will be unable to financially manage such a change. This is another poorly thought out law.
I installed two heat pumps in my home two years ago. Yes, I have decreased the cost of heating my home as compared to heating with an oil furnace this year. Our temperatures have been warmer than usual this year. However, they are not efficient in very cold weather and I need to kick in my oil furnace. With the increasing cost of electricity I doubt heat pumps will be very affordable in the future and certainly are not efficient enough to be the sole source of heat for your home.
Lynn,
That had been my experience as well for three years, after spending $24000 for three 24,000 Btu/h heat pumps, with six heads.
I saved an average of $200/y
Amortizing the cost at 6%/y over 15 years would cost about $2300/y
Where in hell is the saving?
Cleaning the heads costs $300/y
Cold/overcast weather is bad for heat pumps
Anybody who says otherwise is a two-tongued, gas-lighting liar
When I moved to VT in 75, the house we bought was heated by electrons. We changed out the meter to only use electricity in the off peak hours. It cost us 300+ a month for heat in the late 70s early 80s. At the time I kept hearing about propane being the cleanest fuel so I converted my house to propane on demand combo heater for both heat and hot water. Changed all the baseboards to hot water. When the oil embargo hit, I added a 2 story greenhouse to the S side of the house that will heat the house on any sunny day. That is until the sun goes down. Then 6 years ago I added 20 solar panels feeding electrons into the grid (they have not been working since Nov.19 and me fighting with the installer about repairs). I also added a super wood stove in my living room and a 10 KW generator in case the grid goes down. At this point the state can kiss my ***.
You probably used all your savings to pay for your increasing real estate taxes.
No good deed goes untaxed
I’d suggest moving to NH or Down south Don, you’d save a bunch of money and be in a more friendly atmosphere.Train wreck is being kind, it’s more like a cataclysm. You also left your EV out of the total with the required new battery after 7 years
Yep, we moved south. Much more friendly political atmosphere, and the cost saving has been very significant compared to VT. It was pretty clear that the VT legislators were going to drive us to the poor house by a 1000 cuts.
Good for you Rjorgens, I would love to move down there in the warm but have a hard time leaving my family’s 1879 property. I also love sailing on Lake Champlain so put up with the leftist bullsheit for those reasons. Hopefully I can come to my senses and sell out and move while I can still enjoy it…
It was hard to leave, my Most of my family is in New England (NH mostly). I lived on over 70+ acres with a small 1200 sq/ft cabin in VT. I paid nearly $5,000/year in property taxes annually in 2016. I pay less then 1/2 that now for a 3200 sq/ft all brick ranch on 5 acres with better schools for my kids then I ever had in VT.
I hear you on the sailing, and I love it too. I’m not far from some pretty good sized lakes (small compared to Lake Champlain) but they still have good sailing. I’ve seen some nice ~30′ sail boats on them. They’re plenty of local sailing clubs and you can sail year round!
Moving is hard, I get it. I’m now in my forever home and can visit the north whenever I want, but I don’t have to endure the toxic political climate like I used have to like I did when I lived in VT.
I’m with RJ. I left a few years ago. it was the only way we could retire a bit early – HAD TO get out of VT’s taxes & costs. I’m now in warm sun, no snow. My Super-Off-Peak electricity, base cost, is 3.5 cents a KWH (love big nukes). My property insurance is cheaper. VT income taxes cost us 8.75%…I now pay 2.5%. My old VT house paid $16,500 property taxes….where I am now, property taxes are $4,200…but the house is worth double what the VT one was. VT steals & taxes Social Security…where I am now, NO STATE TAX on Social security. So why stay in VT? We saved well into tens of thousands $$$ annually by leaving…and we are no longer miserable as inmates in a Socialist hell hole. We were basically hated on, because we were successful/ well to do…the old VT “Class Envy, Class Warfare” ruse….we could not take it anymore…. We now regret not leaving sooner…and even more so, regret ever having spend the majority of my life there….I realize now the difference between two “PC” States. VT is “Politically Correct”…where I am now is swimming in “PC” too….”Prosperity” and “Commerce”. Leave VT while you can.
Should read: Required new EV after 7 or 8 years
Who in hell would be stupid enough to put a new $16,000 battery in a 7 year old EV
Don I’ve got a lot of questions for you now.
You’re pumping $247,000 dollars into a 200 year old house.
So now lets talk about real estate.
I’m going to assume that your 200 year old house must be very well maintained.. a rare thing today and no small feat.
But have you considered what this all does to your property value? and then how it raises your property tax bill?
Now add the maintenance for all this.
Can you, or anyone- even afford to live there after all of this?
There are plenty of big old houses in Vermont, but how many are worth putting approaching a quarter million dollars into for just this one particular aspect of things.. what about the roofs they need and the new windows they need.. you sure are eating up a whole lot of the overall ‘home maintenance’ budget on only one aspect of the total picture. So what happens when they do all the rest of the work? is an average 200 year old house now needing to be valued at 2 million dollars after they’ve done all this- because these are huge numbers.
THEN we have to wonder if it’s even worth it.. there are many places that these numbers are simply not going to work.
And who buys this house eventually?
Do you know what kind of income someone needs to make to pay a mortgage on a place like this?
Have you got jobs around for people work at to then get financed for a place like this?
Or does everyone have to wait it out for the wealthy cash buyers.. after this bubble bursts, it could take years to sell the place if that is what is going on..
These are all the ripple effects of their ideas..
These people cooking up these brainstorms don’t seem to look at the full and entire picture.
As far as I’m concerned, you’ve ruined the house with all this stuff.. I wouldn’t take it with all that stuff if you gave it to me.. I’m in NH where we throw wood in the stove.
So this stuff is not a plus to all people and it may be something that makes a whole lot of people
NOT want the house or to move to Vermont if dealing with all that is what is required..
Before anyone plunks down all that money, they may want to do some thinking about all of this.
There certainly is NOT Simple Living in Vermont– many outta state potential buyers will learn.
Don, thanks for the data, and a realistic outlook on this boondoggle, S.5 train wreck
has been postponed — temporarily, this train wreck needs to be derailed and trashed
once and for all !!
Wake up, people…………………
You forgot the solar panels, say 5 kW at $20,000, guaranteed not to work at night and when there is snow and ice on the panels.
I just put in a propane stove, 30,000 Btu/h, turnkey, $6,000 including gas piping and flue
The two people who installed it, use wood stoves, but I am getting too old to lug around tons of firewood or pellets. I have enough trouble with a 40 lb birdseed bag.
I am thinking of getting a few blankets and forget about heating, except when it gets really cold.
” I have enough trouble with a 40 lb birdseed bag.” hehee me too Willem, throwing it up on my shoulder and walking 50 feet into the house has be huffing and puffing
It sucks getting old….
Getting old is not the problem. As I was getting older I would work smarter and then I started feeling old and that is when it sucked. 2 bad hips and 2 bad knees and one or the other ankle, depending on any activity or weather. YIKES.
Did I not read yesterday that the split heat pumps do not work when the temperature gets to
17 degrees. How often will or does that happen. As well, the couple saw an increase in their
electric bill of up to $400 a month. Then they still needed back up source for heat. This entire
topic is insane and where are the voters who will have to pony up hundreds of thousands of
dollars to make these transitions. The vast majority will not be able to afford this.
Not to mention again that our legislators are putting our state at the mercy of another country
for our electrical needs…. what the hell is that? It’s the equivalent of making our nation dependent on a foreign nation for fuel. The people in Montpelier are so driven to an end and they cannot see
the outcomes. Lets hope Govenor Scott can control that blind ambition they display.
Deb,
On a windy, overcast day, I have no passive solar heating and I run my heat pumps down to about 15F.
Below that, I use my 85% efficient propane furnace, because it is less costly per hour than running my heat pumps.
On a sunny day, I have lots of passive solar, and I run my heat pumps down to 10F, etc.
On a sunny day, the house gets warm enough, I can turn off all heating at about 10 am, and turn it back on at about 4 pm.
I spent $24000 on three 24000 Btu/h heat pumps with 6 heads
Oh, and I save about $200/y, using my heat pumps, but the cleaning of the heads costs $300, so I got screwed.
Amortization of the cost over 15 years at 6% would cost me another $2300, so now I am double-screwed
I also pay $350 for annual maintenance of my propane furnace.
Triple screwed, but the installers are so busy, they are booked to next year, laughing all the way to the bank and to various resorts to ensure they do not overwork
It should also be noted that the price of electricity has been spiraling ever higher so the cost to operate all of these “electric” components/devices will, in itself, become exorbitant.
Energy poverty will be the result of such insane energy policies.
Thank you, Don, for a reality check on the S.5. This should wake people up to the huge expense of this drastic switch over from fossil fuels. Wind and solar will NEVER be able to to fuel the grid which provides the electricity. What is protecting our grid anyway? In the news (not MSM) we have seen several power grids attacked (terrorism?), and this is the easiest way to cripple a nation. If something like that happens in VT or our Canadien power source, people will freeze to death or die of hunger when the lights literally go out! This is not worth the progressive paper it is written on!
Great column Don!
Don,
Those numbers are spot on. I installed a pellet stove and it cost over $4,200. People I know in Arlington spent $25,000 for 4 heat pumps including installation. This madness has to stop!
At the recent town meeting at Arlington, our local legislators appear to be gun-ho on approving S.5 because it has a “check-back” clause as it appears on page 29 of the legislation. They also said that the 70 cent per gallon increase in the cost of fuel oil because of the S.5 is de-bunked and not true and it was a scare tactic. I believe the legislature expects that the increased costs the retailers will have to pay will not be passed onto the consumer. I wonder what world they live in?
I want to ask everyone to engage with their legislators to say how bad this legislation is. If it is too complex to explain in common language at an 8th grade reading level, as most newspapers are written in, then it is too complex.