Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, the total number of deaths forecast for the U.S. have ranged wildly from as high as 2.2 million to, most recently, 60,400.

Models created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have been consistently inaccurate. IHME predicted New York would need between 48,000 and 65,000 beds as of April 4, but New York’s hospitalizations on that date were less than 16,000. A newly-updated model forecast that 6,600 New Yorkers would be in intensive care due to COVID-19, but the actual number is about 4,600.

IHME hasn’t done better in its projections for other states. The modeler predicted 4,000 hospitalizations for Florida, but the state has had fewer than 2,000.

Watch Tucker Carlson video above for full analysis.