Keep in mind that of Vermont’s roughly $8 billion annual budget, roughly $6 billion is paid for with federal dollars, and of that $6 billion about half is “one-time” emergency funds. Vermont taxpayers are only required so far to pony up a little more than $2 billion of all that spending — and that is tapping us out.
By Rob Roper
When Democrats won super-supermajorities in both chambers of the Vermont Legislature in November’s election, they brought with them a host of legislative priorities that come with massive price tags for Vermont taxpayers. While debate over these ideas tends to be siloed in committee hearings, it is important to take a look at them together to understand just how much new and ongoing spending these legislators have in mind — and how they expect us to pay for it all.
The Clean Heat Standard (S.5). $300 million per year “carbon tax.” This law would force dealers of fossil heating fuels (oil, propane, natural gas, and kerosene) to buy “clean heat credits” in order to sell their products. The credit is essentially a carbon tax on fuel dealers that will be passed along to customers. The revenue from the credits would go to fund things like low-income home weatherization and subsidizing heat pump installation. To fund these projects at the scale required by the Global Warming Solutions Act the Scott Administration estimates the total cost of heat credits over the first four years of the program would be $1.2 billion, causing an increase in home heating fuel of roughly 70¢ per gallon, or on average (assuming 700 gallons of heating oil per year) a de facto $500 carbon tax per household.
Universal Childcare. $279 million per year. For nearly two decades Vermont has been ratcheting up state government’s role in childcare from birth to five with an eye on the ultimate prize of incorporating four new grades into the public school system. This year they expect to make a big jump in that direction, and the RAND Corporation was hired to do an in-depth study of what it would take to fulfill the wish list of Let’s Grow Kids. Short answer, an additional $279 million in new taxes. This number is too big for any one pool of money, so it would have to be broken up with the biggest chunk coming from a new 1 percent payroll tax ($196 million), and some combination of an increased sales tax (from 6 to 8 percent), an expansion of the current sales tax to services, a dedicated sales tax on services of 10 percent, and/or a tax on soda to make up the other $83 million.
It is important to note that this is a year-one estimated cost. The expectation is that the annual cost to maintain this program would grow faster than the rate of inflation, more in line with the growth rate of k-12 public education spending.
Paid Family Leave (H.66). $116 million per year payroll tax. Governor Scott successfully vetoed a Paid Family Leave bill in 2020, but now it is back. As with its predecessor, this would be a mandatory program for all employees paid for with a new 0.58% payroll tax (total: $116 million), automatically deducted from everyone’s paycheck.
The bill would allow an employee to take up to twelve weeks (three months) of paid leave in a 12-month period for the birth of a child, to care for a sick family member or their own health, or to grieve the death of a loved one (limited to two weeks). One wonders what the fatality rate will be for favorite aunts during deer season as a result of this bill.
It is also important to note that S.66 states, “Notwithstanding subsection (a) of this section [setting the 0.58 percent tax rate], the General Assembly shall annually establish the rate of contribution for the next fiscal year. The rate shall [emphasis added] generate contributions in an amount equal to the sum of the projected amount necessary to provide benefits pursuant to this chapter during the next fiscal year plus a reserve equal to at least nine months of the projected benefit payments for the next fiscal year plus the projected cost to administer the Program during the next fiscal year….”
So, no, that 0.58% payroll tax number isn’t going to be that low for very long. As high as $116 million is, this is just the camel’s nose under the tent that mandates future spending increases. Expect the cost of the program and the payroll tax rate supporting it to explode very quickly.
The bill has 103 sponsors — more than enough votes to override a veto.
Single Payer Healthcare Redux (H.156). ($2.5 billion plus?) As with its doomed predecessor this version of Single Payer Healthcare would be financed by a payroll tax levied on all employers and a tax on self employment income, and an income tax surcharge, and by whatever other means necessary as may be determined by the General Assembly.
Although H.156 doesn’t spell out what the program would cost, Governor Peter Shumlin’s attempt at single payer died in 2014 when the year-one bill came to $2.5 billion requiring an 11.5 percent payroll tax plus a 9.5 percent income tax surcharge. The cost of healthcare has only gone up in the intervening decade. Unlike the original bill, full implementation of H.156 would phase in over three years instead of all at once, but this is still a very short time-frame to ramp up that much taxing and spending.
These are just the big-ticket items. Vermont taxpayers will also be subject to the usual “death by a thousand cuts” (although “cuts” is probably not the best choice of words while discussing Vermont tax policy), as other pet projects move forward, and programs until recently funded by federal emergency funds need to be extended with state tax dollars — or ended.
One example of this is the universal free school meals program, which federal funding supported during the Covid pandemic. That funding ended last summer, and Vermont taxpayer picked up the tab to extend it for another year to the tune of $29 million. Now legislators want to make the program permanent — with Vermont tax dollars.
Another is the housing program that currently pays for about 2800 homeless to live in hotels. Federal funds for that program are set to run out, so the Vermont House Appropriations Committee just voted to allocate $21 million of Vermont tax dollars to keep it afloat through June of this year.
$21 million here, $29 million there — it begins to add up!
Keep in mind that of Vermont’s roughly $8 billion annual budget, roughly $6 billion is paid for with federal dollars, and of that $6 billion about half is “one-time” emergency funds. Vermont taxpayers (apart from the fact that we all pay federal taxes) are only required — so far — to pony up a little more than $2 billion of all that spending — and that is tapping us out. According to WalletHub, in 2022 Vermonters lives under the 4th highest state tax burden in the country. If the Democrats pass their agenda, just wait til 2023.
Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com
Anyone believing the solvency of Vermont, or the USA, by the reported “fake” and skewed numbers is about to be catapulted into a reality that is going to get very ugly, very quick. Those who believed their financial advisors are the first ones to go down. (Hint, financial advisors don’t work for you or your company.) The amount of DC pork is all leveraged with foreign investments, of which, Treasury bonds are about to be dumped back onto our shores like hot potatoes. The OTC derivatives market: “The notional value of outstanding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives rose to $632 trillion at end-June 2022, up from $598 trillion at end-2021.” Remember 2008? The Fed is not the government. The Fed and the EU are tied together tighter than 2008 and the IMF is the rope. China and Russia are holding the scissors. Why does China hold so much leverage on the USA? When our currency implodes, they can call all the notes due and who is going to stop them? China Joe? Perhaps that meeting under the Golden Dome in February 2019 with the CCP was China investing knowing one day they can own Vermont. The way it is operating since that date seems plausible. The infiltration into every insititution as well as the amount of major industries in the USA are owned by China. The IMF thinks it will dictate to China and Russia. Nay. The cratering has just begun by those holding the scissors and no amount of taxation set forth will stop or lessen the implosion.
I do not know of any one in Congress who possesses a better academic background, plus he has a great sense of humor.
John Kennedy graduated magna cum laude in political science, philosophy, and economics from Vanderbilt University, was president of his senior class, and was elected to Phi Beta Kappa.
He received his law degree from the University of Virginia School of Law, where he was an executive editor of the “Virginia Law Review” and elected to the Order of the Coif.
He earned a Bachelor of Civil Law degree with first class honors from Oxford University (Magdalen College) in England, where he studied under Sir Rupert Cross and Sir John H. C. Morris.
FIRST OF ALL, I’M JOHN KENNEDY, NOT THAT JOHN KENNEDY, I AM THE OTHER JOHN KENNEDY, (R) SENATOR REPRESENTING THE GREAT STATE OF LOUISIANA. PERMIT ME TO TELL YOU WHAT I BELIEVE.
* 1. I BELIEVE AMERICA WAS FOUNDED BY GENIUSES, BUT IS NOW RUN BY IDIOTS.
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2. I BELIEVE YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID, BUT YOU CAN VOTE THEM OUT OF OFFICE.
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3. WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU HEARD OF ANYONE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO CHINA?
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4. AMERICA IS SO GREAT THAT PEOPLE WHO HATE IT, REFUSE TO LEAVE.
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5. LET ME SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SUCKS.
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6. I BELIEVE EXERCISE MAKES YOU LOOK BETTER NAKED, BUT SO DOES ALCOHOL.
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7. WELFARE SHOULD BE A BRIDGE, NOT A PARKING LOT.
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8. WEAKNESS INVITES THE WOLVES.
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9. WE MUST ARM FOR PEACE.
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10. WE DON’T HAVE A GUN CONTROL PROBLEM, WE HAVE AN IDIOT CONTROL PROBLEM.
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11. FREE ADVICE FRIENDS, IF GOVERNMENT TELLS YOU NOT TO BUY A GUN, BUY TWO.
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12. I BELIEVE, IF YOU HATE POLICE OFFICERS, THE NEXT TIME YOU ARE IN TROUBLE, CALL A CRACK-HEAD.
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13. HERE’S A FREE TIP, COPS WILL LEAVE YOU ALONE, IF YOU DON’T DO STUPID THINGS.
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14. I BELIEVE, WE NEED AN ELECTION DAY, NOT AN ELECTION MONTH.
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15. I BELIEVE, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVE WHO YOU SAY YOU ARE WHEN YOU VOTE.
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16. I BELIEVE, 400,000 BODIES BURIED AT ARLINGTON NATIONAL CEMETERY ARE THE REASON YOU SHOULD STAND FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM.
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17. I BELIEVE, THE WATER WON’T CLEAR TILL YOU GET THE PIGS OUT OF THE CREEK.
*18. I BELIEVE, LOVE IS THE ANSWER, BUT YOU SHOULD OWN A GUN, JUST IN CASE.
Willem, that guy’s a genius…so succinct…even a numb nut Progressive Vermonter might “get it”…this is slight off topic but similar to what you shared of Sen John Kennedy. The “Party Ballon.”…quote
“The most powerful military ever assembled by humans was thwarted this week. By a balloon. Specifically, a large spy balloon dispatched by the Chinese Communist Party. A Chinese Communist Party balloon — hereafter known as the “Party balloon.” It will forever be remembered as the Party balloon that defeated President Joe Biden. And the greatest military in the history of human civilization. The country that stood steel-spined through D-Day, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Cold War folded like a cheap suit under the threat of a Party balloon made in China. No wonder Mr. Biden’s military leaders would rather fight battles over pronouns, “white rage,” and gender studies.
It was a ‘trial balloon’. 🙂
It might have been a trial to see what we would do, but I am concerned that we do not know what data it was collecting over Malmstrom afb. The commies might be looking for a way to disrupt communications to the Minuteman launch Control facilities. If they were disrupted, it would mean the CCP could launch, and we couldn’t respond.
Malmstrom was the “Ace in the Hole’ JFK referred to during the Cuban Missile Crisis. — We knew a confrontation was coming over Cuba, and the Minuteman silos, missiles and launch controls were rushed to completion and operational ahead of schedule. That was leadership.
So mush massive milliosn wasted on religious climate change, that will do nothing. Spottd this headine from the NOAA itself:
“Recently published data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that there has not been global warming for the past eight years. And NASA satellite data reportedly confirms that evidence, showing no global warming for eight years and five months, according to JunkScience’s Steve Milloy. But leftists are quick to warn people against drawing the obvious conclusion that the world isn’t about to become a burning ball of fire.”
So, here’s how to make single payer affordable for every mom and pop business in Vermont.
Wal-Mart is raising its bottom wage to $14. Doug, its CEO, had a compensation package in 2021 of $21.1 million, or 1,570,421.9 times that bottom wage. Call that the base income/CEO ratio.
So, pro-rate the payroll tax by measuring the business owner’s or CEO’s income against Doug’s. If the owners of Bob and Bev’s Beverages pay their base workers $14/hr and take home $60,000 before taxes, their base income/CEO ratio is 4,285.7, or 2.7 thousandths of a percent of Wal-Mart’s ratio.
Then divvy up the total cost of the “single payer” plan and levy the tax accordingly. It’s a fairly simple process to figure out the total number of workers and the base/income ratio for each site, then bill the business.
Mom and pop stores would be getting incredibly good health care coverage for 0.0027 of what Wal-Mart would be paying. Assuming there are only two businesses in Vermont– Wal-Mart and Bob and Bev’s Beverages and the cost for coverage for all is $2.5 billion, Wal-Mart’s bill would be $24.99 billion and Bob and Bev’s would be around $10 million. As there are more than one mom and pop business in the state, this figure would be a lot lower, and of course it gets distributed among all the employees.
Bob and Bev’s reaction to this would be to kiss whoever legislated this. Wal-Mart’s? Well, if it doesn’t like it, it can always leave the state– which would make people like Bob and Bev a lot happier.
The CEO for Walmart doesn’t live in Vermont.How would you calculate stock options for executives which is most of their compensation?
Somebody got the information to compile Dougie’s total compensation; one assumes everybody else’s is out there as well. Else, how could Forbes publish its annual 500 list?
As long as absurd comparisons are in order, consider that Walmart has 1,700,000 employees in the U.S.. Assuming that all of them earned only $14 per hour (another absurd assumption – many earn considerably more than that), that would equate to $47.6 Billion in annual wages the Walmart CEO is charged with paying out every year in the U.S. alone. Never mind that there are 2.3 million Walmart employees worldwide at more than $58.8 Billion in wages – for which the CEO is responsible. And aside from wages, Walmart spends $500 million on hourly bonuses as well as almost $900 million in annual retirement benefits.
While Walmart’s greatest single cost is labor, some commenters apparently feel they are just as capable of managing a company with half a Trillion dollars in annual revenue. But these commenters shouldn’t be holding their breath for a call from the Walmart board of directors. In other words, not only do ‘you get what you pay for’, you pay for what you get. The Walmart CEO’s pay equals .000042 of its revenue.
Governor Scott, on the other hand, earns $178,000 and change to manage a $6 Billion monopoly. On a percentage basis (.000030 of revenue), that’s 30% more than the Walmart CEO earns. And how’s the good governor doing?
Correction: The good governor earns 25% less than the Walmart CEO for running an organization 1/10th the size of Walmart. And the governor gets paid no matter how well the State performs.
None the less, the comparison is valid.
Correction: … for running an organization 1/100th the size of Walmart.
1. $178,000??? 0.00030??? Vermont is getting much more for its dollar than Wal-Mart investors are for theirs.
2. $2.49999 million spent by Wal-Mart for cradle-to-grave health coverage for their Vermont employees would be less than a rounding error in its financial reports.
Re: “Vermont is getting much more for its dollar than Wal-Mart investors are for theirs.”
And just what is Vermont getting more of?
Vermont pays its suppliers fair prices and its workers fair incomes, for starts.
What suppliers?
The most expensive commodity Vermont pays for is public K-8 education. And yes, Vermont pays thru the nose for it. In my district – more than $26,000 per student. And what do the people get in return? Well… 60% of Vermont students don’t meet grade level standards and 90% of them graduate anyway.
Such a deal.
Vermont- A good place if you’re poor.Anything else forget it!
As the story goes: the hippies moved here in the 60s because the livin’ was cheap and nobody told you how to live your life. Now they have grown up and gotten elected to the legislature, made Vermont unaffordable and like to tell you how to live your life…
I hope the majority of Vermont voters who got that special feeling by voting for democrats and progressives get that special feeling again when they get their fuel bills and when they get hit with the “avalanche of new taxes” to fund the proposed additions to Vermont’s already overflowing handout cornucopia…
Vermonters are getting what they voted for. It is either because:
1) The majority of voters in Vermont want this,
2) There is a lack of other options, or
3) They don’t understand the options.
Number 1 are people who do not feel pain from high taxes, and may actually benefit from them.
Number 2 is connected to the long session length, which makes it near impossible for people who live in the competitive marketplace and are not funded by government to run for the legislature.
Number 3 means that there was not an effective campaign to educate voters. In some cases there was not enough difference between the options to give a reason to not vote the status quo.
AGI for all taxpayers (personal and commercial) in Vermont in 2019 was $44.4 trillion. The $3.2 billion that Roper lists in his piece represents an average tax hike of 0.072% IF everybody’s tax goes up. For the average household, that’s $5.18. I don’t know if I can bear the increase. Time to get out my AR-15.
That is a joke, right? If not, and you believe what you say…you have no right to vote, ever. You state that the AGI (ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME) for all taxpayers in VT is $44.4 TRILLION? TRILLION? FYI there really aren’t any large taxpaying corporations in VT (IBM left, Green Mtn Coffee left etc…)….and VT has about population of 640,000. Of those 640,000…..THINK – demographics….about 42% of the VT population is over 65 or under 19….so they pay very little in AGI taxes. Just a fact. So that leaves maybe 340,000 people working, employed & paying taxes in VT…and they generate $44.4 TRILLION?
You have no right to vote…if you believe such nonsense. You are the problem (ignorance), not the solution.
Mr. Green: Listen, I understand these numbers are large enough to confuse most anyone… me included. But if cgregory’s claim that Adjusted Gross Income “in Vermont in 2019 was $44.4 Trillion” – and we calculated it as though every living soul in the State was included as an income earner (640,000 people give or take), the 2019 average annual income would have been $69.4 Million per person. And while I disagree that cgregory shouldn’t be allowed to vote, I do wonder if those who have been elected make their decisions based on similarly absurd perspectives.
Sorry,Mr. Jay… “cgregory” should never be allowed to vote. He/she actually believes and FIGHTS for what he/she posted….states that the average Vermonter makes $69 million each, a year. All lies and he/she believes & fights for whatever lies are told to he/she…and fights to elect similar low IQ “he/she” morons to VT legislature. American was not founded on lies nor should it be run by progressive-socialist-liars. Communist, Progressive & Socialist countries ALL run on lies, false fears & propaganda….and “cgregory” is the most classic example of an indoctrinated, non thinking, brainwashed moron I’ve ever come across…and VT IS FULL OF PEOPLE LIKE HIM/HER…he/she/… :)… the IQ of a peanut. And all these idiot peanuts, run VT.
I found what I believe to be cgregory’s AGI reference.
https://tax.vermont.gov/sites/tax/files/documents/income_stats_2019_state_Percentile.pdf
The Total AGI isn’t $44 Trillion as cgregory stated (twice). It’s $44 Billion. And half of it is attributed to out-of-state sources. So the average AGI, ‘as though every living soul in the State was included as an income earner (640,000 people give or take)’ is $34,375.
I’m still not sure what this reference has to do with anything.
Sorry, but that comes right from the Dept. of Taxes, field C30 of the 2019 spreadsheet summary.
Incidentally, while none of us got tax cuts, corporations in Vermont had tax cuts totaling 40% between 1990 and 2010.
Please. OMG….do you HONESTLY believe the total income AGI in VT for companies and people is $44 TRILLION? That is somewhere around $69 million AGI income PER PERSON. What planet are you one? Whatever planet it is, it is a planet full of Lies, False Fears and Propaganda….a socialist, communist playbook and fits VT to a “T”.
Please, curb your ignorance. Trump gave MASSIVE tax cuts to individuals…He increased the standard deduction for couples to $25,000 and INCREASED the child tax CREDIT (not deduction, CREDITS) by several thousand dollars. This means, on average , 47% of the USA population PAYS NO TAXES. Furthermore TRUMP eliminated the subsidy for the RICH that they can DEDUCT their property taxes against income…and these taxes were often in the tens of thousands $$. If you had a clue… and threw away your propaganda lies….Trump was a savior to the average person . READ FACTS:
“The share of Americans who pay zero income taxes is expected to stay high, at around 57% this year, according to the Tax Policy Center. It’s expected to fall back down to 42% in 2022 and remain at around 41% or 42% through 2025, “assuming the economy continues to rebound and several temporary tax benefits expire as scheduled,” Gleckman said.
The Vermont legislature is, literally, out of control. It seems to be creating the equivalent of denial-of-service attacks by flooding Vermonters with myriad proposed legislative actions to the point that concerned citizens can’t reasonably and proactively respond to all of them. The only recourse will be to respond re-actively. Of course, this jeopardizes every citizen who gets blind-sided by one legislative instance or another and having to respond in court.
And then, the courts will be overwhelmed. Never mind the ludicrous decisions put forth by activist judges like the one in Brattleboro who dismissed a parental lawsuit against Academy School for vaccinating their child without permission.
This must be a strategy to make an end-run on Article 9 of the Vermont Constitution, in which it is written: “… previous to any law being made to raise a tax, the purpose for which it is to be raised ought to appear evident to the Legislature to be of more service to community than the money would be if not collected.” After all, nothing ‘appears evident’ if we don’t have the time or capacity to review and respond to all of these proposals.
But then again, does it matter anymore? A legislative supermajority is the epitome of tyranny. There’s nothing anyone can do to stop the onslaught.
One can vote with one’s feet.
Correct. Someone should make & sell a new bumper sticker, to compete with the thousands of “Bernie” ones you see every day: “VTGON”….Vermont Get Out Now”.
“Reality Is The Last At Bat”…and when it hits VT in a few years, I think it’s possible VT is the first State to ask for a Federal bailout/loan. States cannot declare bankruptcy, only Cities can. You logically can’t spend $8-$9 billion a year for a mere 640,000 people (and 43% of VT population is under 19 or over 65 and pay little in taxes)…along with State debt of $2-$3 billion, and unfunded UNION liabilities of about $4.5 billion. But Feds can’t bail out VT, because then all other wastrel PC Liberal States, CA, IL, MA, NJ, NY, CT etc.. will demand same bailout. There isn’t enough money to do that.
AGI iin 2019 for all Vermont taxpayers was $4.4 trillion. $9 billion a year is 0.2% (not 2.0%) of that. That’s $147 a year per average Vermont taxpayer. Let’s not whine.
A source told me CA and VT are both susceptible to bankruptcy, but the US Govt will only bail out CA
All the nutty-zero knuckleheads who voted for these Dem/Progs will find out the multiple Montpelier hits to their pocketbooks in short order
There is a silver lining, because Vermont will have thousands of unvetted, unskilled, uneducated, bracero-type, culturally different, open-border walk-ins, who will need everything, at a government cost of about $30,000 per year per person, of which about $20,000 cash, or cash equivalent, will go to the person, the difference being government overhead
A whole new permanent of bleeding heart government branch will be created