By Tom Gantert | The Center Square
Gas prices won’t be as volatile in 2023 as they were in 2022, but motorists can likely expect high gas prices this year, according to an analysis by GasBuddy.
GasBuddy released its 2023 forecast and projected that gas prices would average $3.49 a gallon.
GasBuddy’s 2023 forecast says California may face gas prices near $7 a gallon in the summer but most cities will see prices peak at $4 a gallon. GasBuddy predicts the highest average price will be $4.12 per gallon in June.
The past year saw extremes in the U.S. prices of gas at the pump. Gas prices averaged $5.03 per gallon in June 2022, the highest ever, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But by December, gas had dropped to $3.32 a gallon.
“2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a news release. “The national average could breach $4 per gallon as early as May — and that’s something that could last through much of the summer driving season. Basically, curveballs are coming from every direction. Extreme amounts of volatility remain possible, but should become slightly more muted in the year ahead. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such an amount of volatility as we saw this year, and that will be a trend that likely continues to lead to wider uncertainty over fuel prices going into 2023.”
GasBuddy’s 2023 forecast says California may face gas prices near $7 a gallon in the summer but most cities will see prices peak at $4 a gallon. GasBuddy predicts the highest average price will be $4.12 per gallon in June.
“Additionally, as the world continues to navigate Covid recovery, as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a high level of uncertainty is again a factor in 2023, making an accurate forecast very challenging,” the forecast states.
GasBuddy projects total gas spending will be $470.8 billion in 2023, which is less than the $526.3 billion spent in 2022, but far more than $280.0 billion spent in 2020 when the pandemic started.
Gas prices were reportedly rising Jan. 2 across the country. AAA reported the average price of gas was $3.21 per gallon as of Jan. 2, 11 cents higher than a week ago.
Capacity and Cost of Battery Systems for ONE HOUR Backup of US Electric System
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-biden-administration-s-offshore-wind-fantasy
US hourly electricity loaded by power plants onto US grids is
4000 billion kWh x 1/8766 h/y = 456308465 kWh
Batteries should not be discharged to less than 20% full and not be charged to more than 80% full, to achieve 15-y useful service life, per Tesla.
Battery system rated capacity
456308465 x 1/0.6, available capacity x 1/0.93 Tesla design factor = 817757105 kWh, delivered as AC at battery voltage
All-in, turnkey, capital cost of battery systems
817757105 x $500/kWh/1000000000 = $409 billion; most of it would need to be replaced every 15 years. See Note
Li-ion battery systems have a loss of about 18%, when new, and about 20%, when older, on an A-to-Z basis
Delivered by battery system is 456308465 kWh, as AC to HV grid
Charge in battery system is 456308465/0.9 = 507009405 kWh, as DC
Electricity to battery system is 507009405/0.9 = 563343783 kWh, as AC from HV grid
NOTE: Hourly electricity generated by 30,000 MW of offshore wind turbines would be
30,000 MW x 1 h x 0.45, annual capacity factor = 13500000 kWh, which would be 100 x 13500000/456308465 = 2.96% of hourly electricity fed to US grid
NOTE: The rated capacity of the Moss Landing, California, battery system, owned by Pacific Gas and Electric Company, is 300 MW/1200 MWh.
The all-in, turnkey, capital cost was $370 million, or $370 million/1200000 kWh = $308/kWh, delivered as AC at battery voltage; 2018 pricing
The $308/kWh has increased at least 50% to $462/kWh in 2022, with higher pricing after 2022.
NOTE: If wind and solar were 100% of electricity fed to the US electric grid (all nuclear and fossil plants were shutdown), about one month of battery and other storage would be required to cover wind/solar lulls and seasonal variations, per various hour-by-hour grid reliability studies.
The all-in turnkey cost of the battery systems would be 8766/12 x $409 b = $298.8 TRILLION
Oh wait..going back up?? Damn that Putin!